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Writer's pictureDeric Hollings

Correlation Does Not Imply Causation


 

When recently listening to an episode of the DarkHorse Podcast by biologist Bret Weinstein, I appreciated his framing of the distinction between correlation and causation. Often, I find that people mistake these two terms and the significance of each concept.

 

I’ll address Weinstein’s framing of the matter in a bit. For now, let’s explore the correlation-causation distinction.

 

Correlation is defined as a relation existing between phenomena or things or between mathematical or statistical variables which tend to vary, be associated, or occur together in a way not expected on the basis of chance alone. Essentially, the term suggests a relationship.

 

Causation is defined as the act or agency which produces an effect. This term relates to causality which is defined as the relation between a cause and its effect or between regularly correlated events or phenomena. Here, a relationship exists though which is causal in nature.

 

According to one source, “The phrase ‘correlation does not imply causation’ refers to the inability to legitimately deduce a cause-and-effect relationship between two events or variables solely on the basis of an observed association or correlation between them.”

 

For clarity, I stated in a blogpost entitled When Diversity Isn’t a Strength, “It’s important to understand that correlation doesn’t imply causation. As an example, umbrella usage tends to increase on rainy days, as this is a correlative effect. However, umbrellas do not cause rain.”

 

The relationship between umbrella usage and rainy days exists. However, there is no cause-and-effect relationship between these two factors. Ergo, correlation does not imply causation when considering umbrella usage and rainy days.

 

Regarding this matter, and in reference to COVID-19 so-called vaccinations, Weinstein stated in the DarkHorse Podcast episode:

 

This issue that correlation does not equal causation is so badly misunderstood by the—even the educated public that I think it’s important to just review the actual status of that claim. Correlation does not, in and of itself, imply causation.

 

But correlation very definitely does imply causation when it is preceded by a causal hypothesis. So this is a question of the philosophy of science, and those who think that you can dismiss any correlation from implying causation are just simply not on solid ground.

 

In this case, if you have the suspicion – based on what you’ve seen – that the MRNA shots for example are causing injury and death in excess of what you would see otherwise, then from that point going forward – if that trend is manifest in the data as correlation – it does imply causation.

 

Does it nail it as proof? No. But the fact is we don’t traffic in proof inside of science. We have what we call a hypothesis that has matured, because it has been—attempts to falsify it have failed and it has withstood those attempts.

 

We call that a theory. It is the standing theory there should be, exactly one of them at most, there can be no theories for something; only hypotheses, and then if one hypothesis has withstood the test and none of the others have, then you have a theory.

 

To interlock what Weinstein stated about science not serving as a method of proving concepts with something which I've addressed, consider what I expressed in a blogpost entitled Challenging Disappointment:

 

Science neither proves nor disproves ideas. Rather, it accepts or rejects data based on supporting or refuting evidence and revises conclusions based on additional evidence.

 

Weinstein’s framing of correlation and causation is important to consider, because a logical and reasonable (collectively “rational”) proposal isn’t rejected when merely evoking the notion that correlation does not imply causation. With enough correlative effects, causation may be implied.

 

Perhaps you’re curious as to why a psychotherapist who works in the field of mental, emotional, and behavioral health – a form of soft science – would address this matter in the first place. Your application of skepticism is healthy and welcome.

 

I practice rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT) which uses a scientific approach to well-being. In particular, through use of the ABC model, REBT rationally assesses whether or not a person’s irrational beliefs are to be accepted or rejected.

 

Moreover, REBT theory maintains that there is a direct link – or cause – between unproductive beliefs and the unpleasant emotive, bodily sensation, and behavioral consequences people experience. This is why I often italicize “cause” within my blogposts.

 

To put a final point on this topic, consider that people disturb themselves using a Belief-Consequence (B-C) connection. Of course, this isn’t to suggest that in the context of the naturalistic or physical world there is no Action-Consequence (A-C) connection.

 

As an example, if you’re caught in the rain without an umbrella (Action), then you may get wet (Consequence). From an A-C perspective, rain can cause wetness.

 

Alternatively, when you become wet (Action) and you unhelpfully Believe, “I can’t stand when it rains, because I shouldn’t get wet when not carrying an umbrella,” then you’ll likely self-upset into an angry disposition (Consequence). Thus, self-disturbance is caused by a B-C connection.

 

Understanding the correlation-causation distinction is an integral component to the proper application of reducing self-disturbance through the scientific approach to well-being offered by REBT. If you’d like to know more about how to stop upsetting yourself, I’m here to help.

 

If you’re looking for a provider who works to help you understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life—helping you to sharpen your critical thinking skills, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.

 

As a psychotherapist, I’m pleased to help people with an assortment of issues ranging from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters.

 

At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply helping you to feel better, I want to help you get better!

 

 

Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW

 

References:

 

Hollings, D. (2024, May 24). A scientific approach to mental health. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/a-scientific-approach-to-mental-health

Hollings, D. (2024, October 18). ABC model. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/abc-model

Hollings, D. (2024, July 9). Absolutistic should beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/absolutistic-should-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2022, August 26). AntiFACTser: A pandemic of the unFACTsinated. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/antifactser-a-pandemic-of-the-unfactsinated

Hollings, D. (2024, September 15). Challenging disappointment. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/challenging-disappointment

Hollings, D. (2024, March 19). Consequences. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/consequences

Hollings, D. (2022, March 15). Disclaimer. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/disclaimer

Hollings, D. (2023, September 8). Fair use. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/fair-use

Hollings, D. (2024, April 2). Four major irrational beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/four-major-irrational-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2023, October 12). Get better. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/get-better

Hollings, D. (n.d.). Hollings Therapy, LLC [Official website]. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/

Hollings, D. (2023, September 19). Life coaching. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/life-coaching

Hollings, D. (2023, January 8). Logic and reason. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/logic-and-reason

Hollings, D. (2022, December 2). Low frustration tolerance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/low-frustration-tolerance

Hollings, D. (2024, March 4). Mental, emotional, and behavioral health. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/mental-emotional-and-behavioral-health

Hollings, D. (2023, September 3). On feelings. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-feelings

Hollings, D. (2024, July 10). Preferential should beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/preferential-should-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2024, May 5). Psychotherapist. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/psychotherapist

Hollings, D. (2022, March 24). Rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT). Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-emotive-behavior-therapy-rebt

Hollings, D. (2022, November 1). Self-disturbance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/self-disturbance

Hollings, D. (2022, December 23). The A-C connection. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-a-c-connection

Hollings, D. (2022, December 25). The B-C connection. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-b-c-connection

Hollings, D. (2023, August 6). The science. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-science

Hollings, D. (2024, September 29). Well, well, well. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/well-well-well

Hollings, D. (2023, October 20). When diversity isn’t a strength. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/when-diversity-isn-t-a-strength

Weinstein, B. (n.d.). Bret Weinstein [Official website]. Retrieved from https://www.bretweinstein.net/

Weinstein, B. [@DarkHorsePod]. (n.d.). DarkHorse Podcast. YouTube. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/@DarkHorsePod

Weinstein, B. [@DarkHorsePod]. (2024, October 22). Reasonable Dowd: Ed Dowd on DarkHorse [Video]. YouTube. Retrieved from https://youtu.be/Trjv7-eUqt4?si=ZhtX2RsjNKZDAe5p

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Correlation does not imply causation. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Messenger RNA. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messenger_RNA

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