Bayesian Inference

[DISCLAIMER]

Photo credit, fair use

When practicing Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT) in my personal and professional life, I keep in mind that irrational beliefs appear to be the default setting for many people – a cohort from which I’m not exempt. Bear in mind that beliefs aren’t the same as thoughts.

For instance, I think that Tulsi Gabbard is conventionally attractive—considered to arouse interest based on widely accepted societal beauty standards, typically including features such as facial symmetry, proportional body shape, and characteristics often portrayed in media.

You may disagree with my thought and find Gabbard to be visually repulsive. In fact, you may think that she’s the ugliest person you’ve ever seen.

If this is the case and I then irrationally believe that you shouldn’t disagree with my perspective, because you’re an awful person who has no worth unless you agree with me, and I can’t stand your outlook, then my self-disturbing belief will impact me more than a mere thought does.

To address the unhelpful process of self-disturbance, REBT uses techniques known as the ABC model and unconditional acceptance. Regarding the former, disputation of irrational beliefs is utilized in order to achieve more effective new beliefs which influence emotions and behavior.

Concerning the latter, I recognize that no matter what I think or believe about Gabbard, she’s neither a hero nor a villain, good nor bad, nor righteous nor evil. Gabbard is merely a fallible human being, just like me. Thus, routine use of REBT techniques is of significant benefit to me.

Keeping this in mind, it’s worth noting that within my blog I’ve expressed reservations about Gabbard’s past behavior. When issuing critiques in this manner, I try not to criticize the person though to challenge ideas, dispute beliefs, and examine behavior.

As an example, on January 5, 2025, I posted a blog entry entitled Spooky Business in which I stated:

On June 8, 2023, U.S. representative for Colorado’s 5th congressional district, Doug Lamborn, posted the following on X:

Welcome & congratulations to LTC Tulsi Gabbard, who recently assumed command of the @440thCA_BN - the newest battalion in the US Spec Ops & Psy Ops Command (Airborne). I wish outgoing commander LTC Matthew Daly & family well in their next endeavor & thank him for his leadership.

Am I expressly stating that Gabbard is without a doubt a glowie? No. All the same, one thinks critically about her ostensibly spooky business as she’s being considered for next director of national intelligence [DNI]. Regarding her role in PSYOP [psychological operations], one source quoted Gabbard as stating:

I have my 440th Civil Affairs Battalion out here in Hawaii. We have other civil affairs teams pushing out across the Pacific through the FSM [Federated States of Micronesia], RMI [Republic of the Marshall Islands] and other locations, and actually putting their civil affairs skills to work.

I think Gabbard is an intelligence officer and I maintain automatic beliefs about how her field ideally shouldn’t, mustn’t, or oughtn’t to exist at all. However, we live in the real- and not ideal- world. Therefore, I alter my idealistic beliefs accordingly.

For example, I believe that if the United States (U.S.) intelligence field must exist, then it preferentially should, must, or ought to center the Constitution and Bill of Rights at the core of its operations. Observation of these crucial documents is often neglected.

As another matter, on January 11, 2025, I posted a blog entry entitled Cold and Hot Possibilities in which I stated:

Mockingbird media outlet CNN reported on January 10, 2025, “President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to serve as [DNI], Tulsi Gabbard, is voicing support for a key government surveillance authority she once sought to dismantle.”

For context, on January 10, 2025, lamestream media outlet FOX News reported that Gabbard “previously opposed FISA [Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] section 702 re-authorization while serving as a Democrat in the House of Representatives.”

According to one source, “Section 702 allows intelligence agencies to collect the phone calls, emails, text messages, and other communications of almost any non-American located outside of the United States without a warrant […] but Americans’ communications are ‘inevitably’ captured too.”

I paid close attention to Gabbard’s statements when being publically interviewed for the position of DNI. It appeared to me as though she was amiable to the notion of continuing Section 702 in its current state. Fortunately, one January 22, 2025 source reported:

In a long-awaited ruling in United States v. Hasbajrami, the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York last night held that warrantless queries — or searches — conducted under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act violated the Fourth Amendment.

The ruling is the first of its kind, and it follows years of public revelations about how Section 702 has been used by the government to conduct warrantless surveillance of Americans, including protesters, members of Congress, and journalists.

Arguably, Section 702 never was constitutional. Still, per my understanding of Gabbard’s testimony during the DNI nomination process, she was willing to uphold the rights-infringing process. I disagree with Gabbard’s beliefs and behavior though I don’t judge her as a person.

Despite what I believe ideally or preferentially ought to be the case, I understand from having previously worked with intelligence officials for a number of years when in the military that violation of constitutional protections is a mainstay of intelligence field craft. They violate rights.

With this understanding, I use a form of Bayesian inference to keep from self-disturbing about Gabbard’s past behavior regarding intelligence work and potential future actions pertaining to the same. According to one source:

Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes’ theorem is used to calculate a probability of a hypothesis, given prior evidence, and update it as more information becomes available.

I incorporate Bayesian inference into the techniques I use when disputing irrational beliefs. As an example, I hypothesize that given Gabbard’s background in the intelligence field, and what I currently know about that field from lived experience, she’ll likely violate rights of U.S. citizens.

The manner in which I test this hypothesis will be to gather additional evidence and observe whether or not my formulation holds up to scrutiny. Expanding upon this method of rational living, I stated in a blogpost entitled What Would it Take to Change Your Mind?

I offer that if the reader considers there are methods available—other than merely going with one’s instinct or simply believing something, because someone told you it was true—there may be utility in understanding how to approach a topic using logic and reason.

According to one source, Bayes’ theorem “can be used to determine how the probability of an event occurring may be affected by hypothetical new information, supposing the new information will turn out to be true.”

Currently, it’d be difficult to determine whether or not Gabbard would violate rights in the role of DNI, based on probability—the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible. I don’t have enough data.

However, I can test my hypothesis now that Gabbard has reportedly been confirmed to the DNI position. According to one source:

During her first full day as director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard will travel to Germany for the Munich Security Conference, where she will hold 30 bilateral meetings with counterparts, including key U.S. allies Great Britain, France, Australia, and Germany.

When conducting research, the goal is to nullify a hypothesis by gathering evidence that contradicts it. Alternatively, if I sought information to support my hypothesis, I’d irrationally engage in the process of confirmation bias.

Therefore, I can seek to nullify my hypothesis (Gabbard will likely violate rights of U.S. citizens) by observing whether or not she instructs members of Five Eyes (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the U.S.) to stop spying on U.S. citizens.

Gabbard has an opportunity to do this at the Munich Security Conference. Once I have additional evidence, using Bayesian inference, I then can adjust my understanding of what she’ll probably do in her role of DNI. Until then, I’ll continue practicing REBT.

In specific, I recognize that Gabbard isn’t some type of Wonder Woman figure sent to save the U.S. from a deep state of actors who infringe the rights of U.S. citizens. She’s merely a fallible human being who’s employed in the intelligence field.

Although I think she’s conventionally attractive, I don’t need to believe that Gabbard is a villain, that she’s bad, or that she’s evil. Therefore, I’ll simply wait to see what she does in her new role while adjusting my inferences accordingly and attempting to nullify my hypothesis.

If you’re looking for a provider who tries to work to help understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life—helping you to sharpen your critical thinking skills, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.

As a psychotherapist, I’m pleased to try to help people with an assortment of issues ranging from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters.

At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply trying to help you to feel better, I want to try to help you get better!

Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW

References:

ACLU. (2025, January 22). Court rules warrantless Section 702 searches violated the Fourth Amendment. American Civil Liberties Union. Retrieved from https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/court-rules-warrantless-section-702-searches-violated-the-fourth-amendment

ACLU. (2025, January 21). Document: Section 702 memorandum and order - U.S. v. Hasbajrami (11-cr-00623-LDH). American Civil Liberties Union. Retrieve from https://www.aclu.org/documents/section-702-memorandum-and-order-u-s-v-hasbajrami-11-cr-00623-ldh

Alan. (2004, May 9). Spooks. Urban Dictionary. Retrieved from https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=spooks

Boguslaw, D. (2024, April 2). New report reveals dirty secret of Army psychological operations. The Intercept. Retrieved from https://theintercept.com/2024/04/02/pentagon-army-psyops/

Brewer, P. (2014, July 28). A change of command. U.S. Army. Retrieved from https://www.army.mil/article/130701/a_change_of_command

Chauvin, N. (2024, April 9). Why Congress must reform FISA section 702—and how it can. Brennan Center for Justice. Retrieved from https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/why-congress-must-reform-fisa-section-702-and-how-it-can

Cohen, Z. and Lillis, K. B. (2024, January 10). Tulsi Gabbard changes tone on surveillance powers she once sought to dismantle. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/10/politics/tulsi-gabbard-changes-tone-domestic-surveillance/index.html

Ewall-Wice, S. and Raasch, J. M. (2025, February 12). Breaking news: Senate confirms Tulsi Gabbard as Trump's Director of National Intelligence after brutal battle. Daily Mail. Retrieved from https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14357007/tulsi-gabbard-senate-intel-committee-vote.html

Hayes, A. (2023, August 10). Bayes’ theorem: What it is, the formula, and examples. Investopedia. Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bayes-theorem.asp

Hollings, D. (2024, August 7). Awfulizing. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/awfulizing

Hollings, D. (2025, January 11). Cold and hot possibilities. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/cold-and-hot-possibilities

Hollings, D. (2023, August 28). Confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/confirmation-bias-and-cognitive-dissonance

Hollings, D. (2024, November 4). Critical thinking. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/critical-thinking

Hollings, D. (2022, October 31). Demandingness. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/demandingness

Hollings, D. (2022, March 15). Disclaimer. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/disclaimer

Hollings, D. (2023, September 8). Fair use. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/fair-use

Hollings, D. (2024, May 11). Fallible human being. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/fallible-human-being

Hollings, D. (2023, October 12). Get better. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/get-better

Hollings, D. (2023, September 13). Global evaluations. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/global-evaluations

Hollings, D. (n.d.). Hollings Therapy, LLC [Official website]. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/

Hollings, D. (2024, July 10). Ideal should beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/ideal-should-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2024, April 27). Ideal-world vs. real-world. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/ideal-world-vs-real-world

Hollings, D. (2023, May 18). Irrational beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/irrational-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2023, September 19). Life coaching. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/life-coaching

Hollings, D. (2023, September 8). Lived experience. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/lived-experience

Hollings, D. (2023, January 8). Logic and reason. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/logic-and-reason

Hollings, D. (2022, December 2). Low frustration tolerance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/low-frustration-tolerance

Hollings, D. (2024, November 6). Media. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/media

Hollings, D. (2023, October 19). Mockingbird media. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/mockingbird-media

Hollings, D. (2024, June 2). Nonadaptive behavior. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/nonadaptive-behavior

Hollings, D. (2024, April 22). On disputing. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-disputing

Hollings, D. (2023, September 3). On feelings. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-feelings

Hollings, D. (2023, April 24). On truth. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-truth

Hollings, D. (2024, July 10). Preferential should beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/preferential-should-beliefs

Hollings, D. (2024, May 5). Psychotherapist. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/psychotherapist

Hollings, D. (2022, March 24). Rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT). Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-emotive-behavior-therapy-rebt

Hollings, D. (2024, May 15). Rational living. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-living

Hollings, D. (2024, March 14). REBT and emotions. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rebt-and-emotions

Hollings, D. (2022, November 1). Self-disturbance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/self-disturbance

Hollings, D. (2025, January 5). Spooky business. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/spooky-business

Hollings, D. (2024, September 17). The E-C connection. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-e-c-connection

Hollings, D. (2023, August 6). The science. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-science

Hollings, D. (2025, January 9). Traditional ABC model. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/traditional-abc-model

Hollings, D. (2024, October 20). Unconditional acceptance redux. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/unconditional-acceptance-redux

Hollings, D. (2023, September 11). What would it take to change your mind? Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/what-would-it-take-to-change-your-mind

Johnson, J. (2025, January 10). Tulsi Gabbard changes tune on controversial intelligence tool following GOP lobbying. FOX News Network, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.foxnews.com/politics/tulsi-gabbard-changes-tune-controversial-intelligence-tool-following-gop-lobbying

KUAM News. (2024, April 5). Former Hawaii rep. Tulsi Gabbard makes brief stopover on Guam. Retrieved from https://www.kuam.com/story/50643364/former-hawaii-rep-tulsi-gabbard-makes-brief-stopover-on-guam

Peterson, B. (2025, February 12). Exclusive: Gabbard to meet with US allies in Munich on first trip as DNI. ABC News. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/exclusive-gabbard-meet-us-allies-munich-trip-dni/story?id=118737473

Rep. Doug Lamborn. (2023, June 8). Welcome & congratulations to LTC Tulsi Gabbard, who recently assumed command of the @440thCA_BN  - the newest battalion in the US Spec Ops & Psy Ops Command (Airborne). I wish outgoing commander LTC Matthew Daly & family well in their next endeavor & thank him for his leadership [post]. X. Retrieved from https://x.com/RepDLamborn/status/1666876057725567003?mx=2

Stable Diffusion. (n.d.). Wonder Woman inspired by Tulsi Gabbard [Image]. Retrieved from https://stablediffusionweb.com/image/23828261-wonder-woman-inspired-by-tulsi-gabbard

TinklesTheGoat. (2019, December 24). Glowie. Urban Dictionary. Retrieved from https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Glowie

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Bayes’ theorem. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Bayesian inference. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference#:~:text=Bayesian%20inference%20(%2F%CB%88be%C9%AA,as%20more%20information%20becomes%20available.

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Deep state. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_state

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Doug Lamborn. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Lamborn

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Fieldcraft. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fieldcraft#:~:text=Fieldcraft%20comprises%20the%20techniques%20and,wildlife%20and%20food%20and%20agriculture.

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Five Eyes. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Tulsi Gabbard. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulsi_Gabbard

Wikipedia. (n.d.). Wonder Woman. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonder_Woman