Updating Your Hypothesis

[DISCLAIMER]

When listening to an electronic dance music (EDM) DJ set by Kosmovsky, I heard her spin the track “Bayes Theorem”, from the EP Collateral Pleasure (2026), by DHÆÜR. I then thought about a psychoeducational lesson on Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT).

In particular, when practicing the ABC model, I often use a scientific approach to care for mental, emotional, and behavioral health (collectively “mental health”). This practice requires flexibility rather than inflexibility regarding beliefs. Specifically, as it regards updating them.

Noteworthy, the American Psychological Association defines a hypothesis as “an empirically testable proposition about some fact, behavior, relationship, or the like, usually based on theory, that states an expected outcome resulting from specific conditions or assumptions.”

I find that many people conflate “theory” with “hypothesis.” As an example, in common parlance, an individual may say something along the lines of, “I have a theory about why Deric prefers REBT.” Because I maintain that the words we use matter, I reject this semantic misuse.

A hypothesis is a specific, testable proposal about a narrow set of observations (e.g., Deric prefers REBT). A theory is a broad, well-established explanatory framework that organizes multiple facts, tested hypotheses, and laws into a cohesive model (e.g., theory of mind).

In most cases of people claiming to have a personal “theory” about one matter or another, these individuals actually mean that they have a “hypothesis” about this or that. If after considering this you’ve updated your hypothesis about this term, then you’ve used Bayes’ theorem:

Bayes’ theorem (alternatively Bayes’ law or Bayes’ rule), named after Thomas Bayes, gives a mathematical rule for inverting conditional probabilities, allowing the probability of a cause to be found given its effect.

For example, with Bayes’ theorem, the probability that a patient has a disease given that they tested positive for that disease can be found using the probability that the test yields a positive result when the disease is present. The theorem was developed in the 18th century by Bayes and independently by Pierre-Simon Laplace.

One of Bayes’ theorem’s many applications is Bayesian inference, an approach to statistical inference, where it is used to invert the probability of observations given a model configuration (i.e., the likelihood function) to obtain the probability of the model configuration given the observations (i.e., the posterior probability).

Photo credit (edited), fair use

For context, one source states, “Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes’ theorem is used to calculate a probability of a hypothesis, given prior evidence, and update it as more information becomes available.” Ergo, this is a way to change your beliefs.

For instance, using Bayesian inference to update your initial hypothesis or belief (i.e., the prior) about an unknown matter after your original observation (e.g., why Deric prefers REBT), the result is an updated belief (i.e., the posterior). I prefer REBT, as it has over 50 years of data.

Once you’ve received evidence concerning why I prefer REBT to other psychotherapeutic modalities, then you update your hypothesis Thus, your prior was that I prefer REBT. After learning why I prefer it, your posterior is that I prefer REBT due to its evidence base.

Admittedly, this may seem like an arbitrary update to your hypothesis. It isn’t. Still, allow me to use a different example to elucidate my point. Suppose you contact me and tell me that you want to improve your mental health. This bit of information informs my prior.

All the same, it would be both logical and reasonable (collectively “rational”) to ask why mental health improvement is important to you. “I have two close family members who committed suicide within the last year, and I don’t want to end up like them,” you respond.

My prior was that you want to improve your mental health. After receiving more information about why you want to engage my services, I then update this hypothesis. My posterior is then that you want to improve your mental health so that you’ll be less likely to complete suicide.

As I speak with you thereafter, I continually update my previous assumptions, beliefs, hypotheses, etc. upon receiving additional evidence, information, and so forth. Thus, the knowledge I obtain may play a role in saving your life. Now, that’s not so arbitrary, is it?

For the sake of argument, imagine that I didn’t seek to update my initial hypothesis (i.e., prior). Sticking with the prior, all I knew was that you want to improve your mental health. The missed opportunity to learn more and update my hypothesis could play role in dire consequences.

This is what I thought of when listening to the DJ set by Kosmovsky, as I heard her spin the track “Bayes Theorem” by DHÆÜR. Now, I invite you to continuously update your hypotheses. Perhaps you can begin by recalling that you most likely don’t have a theory about anything at all.

If you’re looking for a provider who tries to work to help you understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.

As the world’s foremost EDM-influenced REBT psychotherapist—promoting content related to EDM, I’m pleased to try to help people with an assortment of issues from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters. 

At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply trying to help you to feel better, I want to try to help you get better!

Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW

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