Blowback and Knock-On Effects: Subjectivity of Beliefs

[DISCLAIMER]

My primary job in the United States (U.S.) Marine Corps was military police, as my secondary billet was as a Marine Security Guard (MSG). Regarding the latter (above photo), I was ignorant about how my diplomatic mission supported the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

Nevertheless, when guarding the U.S. embassy in Lima, Peru, I became disillusioned when realizing that my military service supported CIA activities and wasn’t an honorable matter. That’s when I learned of the term blowback. Regarding this concept, one source states:

Blowback is the unintended consequences and unwanted side-effects of a covert operation. To the civilians suffering the blowback of covert operations, the effect typically manifests itself as “random” acts of political violence without a discernible, direct cause; because the public—in whose name the intelligence agency acted—are unaware of the effected secret attacks that provoked revenge (counter-attack) against them.

For context, one source states, “[MSGs] have worked closely with the State Department and [Diplomatic Security Service] for more than seven decades to protect and safeguard sensitive information, property, and people at U.S. embassies and consulates around the world.”

As an MSG, I was taught that terrorism was the use of violence against non-combatants to achieve political or ideological aims. Yet, the CIA’s actions throughout the world, supposedly to counter terrorism, often resulted in knock-on effects, about which one source states:

In the social sciences, unintended consequences (sometimes unanticipated consequences or unforeseen consequences, more colloquially called knock-on effects) are outcomes of a purposeful action that are not intended or foreseen. The term was popularized in the 20th century by American sociologist Robert K. Merton.

Unintended consequences can be grouped into three types:

·  Unexpected benefit: A positive unexpected benefit (also referred to as luck, serendipity, or a windfall).

·  Unexpected drawback: An unexpected detriment occurring in addition to the desired effect of the policy (e.g., while irrigation schemes provide people with water for agriculture, they can increase waterborne diseases that have devastating health effects, such as schistosomiasis).

·  Perverse result: A perverse effect contrary to what was originally intended (when an intended solution makes a problem worse).

Blowback in the form of knock-on effects is something I’m now observing, as it regards the 2026 Iran conflict that, as of yet, U.S. politicians are apparently hesitant to call a “war.” For example, as it concerns MSGs, one source reports:

A “limited fire” has broken out at the [U.S.] Embassy in the Saudi capital of Riyadh after it was hit by two drones, while a fuel tank at Oman’s Duqm commercial port was hit in a drone attack, increasing regional pressure on Gulf Arab states housing US assets in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks.

The strike on the US Embassy early on Tuesday [3/3/2026] caused “minor material damage” to the compound, the Saudi Ministry of Defense said in a statement. Later reports said more drones were targeting the site amid Iran’s retaliation across the Gulf to US-Israeli attacks.

My MSG brothers and sisters in Riyadh are experiencing blowback in the form of knock-on effects from the Trump administration and likely CIA’s decision to back Israel in military action against Iran. To me, such actions look like terrorism. Similarly, a separate source reports:

U.S. Marines opened fire on demonstrators during the storming of the Karachi consulate over the weekend, two U.S. officials said on Monday [3/2/2026]—a rare use ​of force at a diplomatic post that could sharply escalate tensions in the country ‌amid widespread protests over the killing of Iran’s leader.

Ten people were killed on Sunday [3/1/2026] when protesters breached the compound’s outer wall after Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in strikes on Iran.

It’s a relatively rare occurrence for more than one U.S. embassy and consulate to be attacked in such a short period of time. Nevertheless, Karachi MSGs have experienced violence of this sort. Who’s the terrorist in this matter? Unfortunately, another source further reports:

A fast-moving conflict in the Middle East widened along several fronts on Tuesday [3/3/2026], as Iran launched a wave of retaliatory strikes across the region. At least five U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf reported drone and missile attacks, prompting the United States to close embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Israel said it carried out fresh strikes against high-profile targets in Tehran, including the presidential office. Israel also said it would deploy ground troops deeper into Lebanese territory, while Hezbollah said it was targeting Israel with drones.

As the war stretches into its fourth day, the death toll is mounting — and now includes six U.S. service members. President Donald Trump signaled U.S. forces have capabilities to continue striking Iran for “far longer” than the four to five week duration projected by the military.

Not only have MSGs experienced blowback from U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, the knock-on effects of such action have resulted in six U.S. service members and reportedly “more than 700 civilians have been killed since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran last weekend,” as of yet.

I chronicle this displeasing information not because of some morbid curiosity, though due to it serving as a psychoeducational lesson for Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT). Now, I invite you to consider blowback and knock-on effects using this psychotherapeutic model.

REBT uses the ABC model to illustrate that when an undesirable Action occurs and you Believe an unhelpful narrative about the event, it’s your unfavorable assumption, not the occurrence itself, that causes an unpleasant Consequence. This is known as distress or disturbance.

In particular, there are four predominate irrational beliefs which people often use to upset themselves: global evaluations, low frustration tolerance, awfulizing, and demandingness. When contemplating these unproductive beliefs, think of the acronym GLAD.

Additionally, from a psychological standpoint, people distress or disturb themselves using a Belief-Consequence (B-C) connection. Of course, this isn’t to suggest that in the context of the naturalistic or physical world there is no Action-Consequence (A-C) connection.

For instance, from an A-C view, the U.S. and Israel are conducting military maneuvers against Iran (Action) with more than 700 civilians having reportedly been killed (Consequence). Bear in mind that terrorism regards violence against non-combatants for political aims.

In the physical world, blowback relates to Actions having Consequences in the form of knock-on effects. Thus, my fellow MSGs and other U.S. military personnel have experienced a significant retaliatory response from Iran. Now, I encourage you to contemplate the B-C connection.

Iran was attacked by the U.S. and Israel (Action), as Iranians likely Believed, “Our enemies are worthless [G], and we can’t stand them [L]! Because their awful attacks on our nation have killed so many people, to include our religious leader and civilians [A], we must retaliate [D]!”

Addressing how people upset themselves with unhelpful attitudes, the ABC model incorporates Disputation of unproductive philosophies of life in order to explore Effective new beliefs. Whereas rigid beliefs cause self-disturbance, flexible beliefs result in an un-disturbed condition.

Challenging your understanding of the ABC model a bit more, when providing lessons on REBT I invite people to use beliefs which are are rational (in accordance with both logic and reason). Specifically, were the proposed Beliefs of Iranians considered rational or irrational?

Noteworthy, logic is the interrelation or sequence of facts or events when seen as inevitable or predictable, and reason is a statement offered in explanation or justification. For instance, a modus ponens syllogism uses the following logical form: If p, then q; p; therefore, q.

If the U.S. and Israel targeted Iranian civilians (p), then blowback in the form of Iran’s knock-on effects is a form of antiterrorism (q). The U.S. and Israel targeted Iranian civilians (p). Therefore, blowback in the form of Iran’s knock-on effects is a form of antiterrorism (q).

This syllogistic proposal adheres to logical form. I have little doubt that Iranians would consider that it also consequentially follows in the interest of reason. Therefore, I imagine that Iranian officials would consider their beliefs rational while U.S. and Israeli officials would disagree.

From an REBT perspective, I look at the subjectivity one uses regarding maintained attitudes. For clarity, that which is subjective regards characteristics of or belonging to reality as perceived rather than as independent of mind.

Contrastingly, that which is objective is expressed or dealt with regarding facts or conditions as perceived without distortion by personal feelings, prejudices, or interpretations. Concerning subjectivity, I stated in When Are Beliefs Rational or Healthy?:

Noteworthy, when undergoing formal training for REBT, a trainer with the Albert Ellis Institute (AEI) advised trainees that we recommendatorily should clarify what constitutes “rational” or “healthy” beliefs when working with people. For clarity, one REBT source states (page 54):

We have seen that in REBT, beliefs are rational or healthy if they meet three criteria:

·  They are true [being in accordance with the actual state of affairs].

·  They are logical [formally true or valid].

·  They have healthy consequences [a conclusion derived through logic]. […]

What I view as rational and healthy is subjective, and vice versa. Given this foundation, when are beliefs rational or healthy? It depends. […]

[M]y beliefs are rational and healthy when I use them only in relation to how I choose to live my life. Yet, if I were to demand that you must believe or behave as I do regarding your life, then that wouldn’t be rational or healthy.

Given this clarification, is it subjectively rational to use force against terrorists that have attacked your country? Is it logical and reasonable for two sovereign nations to attack another sovereign nation—killing its leader and non-combatants, and refusing to stop continued aggression?

I have my subjective view regarding this matter. Also, I envision you maintaining a subjective perspective. As well, the U.S., Israel, and Iran clearly have subjective outlooks in this regard. Therefore, I can’t objectively declare that Iran’s retaliatory behavior is irrational or unhealthy.

This is the challenge of the ABC model. It’s something I discuss with clients when teaching REBT. Understanding the subjectivity of beliefs may help you make sense of otherwise nonsensical matters, such as the U.S. and Israel ostensibly engaging in terrorism in Iran.

If you’re looking for a provider who tries to work to help understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life—helping you to sharpen your critical thinking skills, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.

As a psychotherapist, I’m pleased to try to help people with an assortment of issues ranging from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters.

At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply trying to help you to feel better, I want to try to help you get better!

Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW

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