Believability: Conflating Believing With Knowing – Flooding the Zone

[DISCLAIMER]

Recently, I’ve observed the reactions of people to sociopolitical stories with varying degrees of believability (the quality or state of being believable—capable of being believed [considered to be true or honest], especially as within the range of known possibility or probability).

As an example, one source states, “The Pentagon in May [2026] made public large swaths of UFO [unidentified flying object; also referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomenon (UAP)] files with very little context, leaving curious sleuths to piece together their own interpretations.”

For context, to know something is to perceive directly (i.e., have direct cognition of), to have understanding of, to recognize the nature of (i.e., discern), to recognize as being the same as something previously known, or to be aware of the truth or factuality of something.

Whereas a belief is a state or habit of mind in which trust or confidence is placed in some person or thing, regarding UFOs and UAPs, I remain agnostic (a person who holds the view that any ultimate reality is unknown and probably unknowable). Related to this matter, one source states:

The United States [U.S.] government’s recent release of hundreds of previously classified [UAP] cases spanning the 1940s to the present, along with the new Steven Spielberg movie, Disclosure Day [2026], about extraterrestrial life [colloquially “aliens”], has fueled the idea that aliens are visiting Earth. In fact, polls in Australia, the US and elsewhere indicate around a third of the public believes aliens are here.

As a fan of Spielberg’s films Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977), E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (1982), and War of the Worlds (2005), I enjoy an alien flick as much as others who believe in extraterrestrial life. However, I remain agnostic regarding the existence of aliens.

Perhaps ignorantly (in a manner that is ignorant—lacking of knowledge, education, or awareness), many people conflate (to bring together) believing with knowing (having or reflecting knowledge, information, or intelligence) in regard to UFOs, UAPs, and aliens.

Simply because one trusts or has confidence in the existence of something doesn’t mean that one may be aware of the truth or factuality of something. Often, I find many of the recent claims of UFOs, UAPs, and aliens to be unfalsifiable (not capable of being proved false).

For instance, person X claims to have encountered an alien in the 1940s. No evidence was gathered during the reported event, as person X believes that the lived experience was real. Moreover, person X concludes that because of the event, this individual knows other aliens exist.

Regarding this claim, I have no evidence which is empirical (originating in or based on observation or experience). Thus, I remain skeptical about the believability of person X’s claim. To justify my response, allow me to discuss Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT).

REBT uses unconditional acceptance (UA) to relieve self-induced suffering. This is accomplished through use of unconditional self-acceptance (USA), unconditional other-acceptance (UOA), and unconditional life-acceptance (ULA).

Whereas the ABC model is a scientific approach to wellness, UA serves as a philosophical method for un-disturbing yourself. I view the former as an abortive approach to disturbance and the latter as a preventative method. Of course, not all REBT practitioners use the same style as I.

With my approach to REBT, I incorporate author Stephen Covey’s concepts regarding the circles of control, influence, and concern, as well as an area of no concern. UA maps onto the circle of control (USA), circle of influence (UOA), and circle of concern and area of no concern (ULA).

The circle of control encompasses only oneself, the circle of influence encapsulates elements which may be subject to one’s sway, the circle of concern engrosses most matters one can imagine, and the area of no concern relates to all content which isn’t yet imagined.

Concerning person X’s claim, this matter relates to my area of no concern and ULA. When I remain skeptical of the believability regarding a proposition, as I don’t conflate believing what is true with knowing what is real, I place the topic into my sphere of agnostic uncertainty.

Ergo, I acknowledge that I don’t have perfect knowledge about anything. Thus, I simply shrug in response to person X’s claim, refocus attention on my circles of control and influence, and carry on about my business. Besides, there are plenty of other topics upon which to focus.

Unhelpfully, people’s reactions to sociopolitical stories with varying degrees of believability haven’t yielded productive use of UA. Of course, it isn’t as though members of the U.S. government aren’t aware of this phenomenon. Specifically, one source states:

“Flood the zone” is a political strategy in which a political figure aims to gain media attention, disorient opponents and distract the public from undesirable reports by rapidly forwarding large volumes of newsworthy information to the media. The strategy has been attributed to U.S. President Donald Trump’s former chief political strategist Steve Bannon.

The strategy came to public light after Bannon told Michael Lewis in 2018 that “The Democrats don’t matter... The real opposition is the media. And the way to deal with them is to flood the zone with shit”. Trump adopted the strategy during the 2016 presidential election, followed by other right-wing political figures such as Éric Zemmour and Elon Musk.

It appears as though in order to distract from U.S. involvement in genocide, ethnic cleansing, and war crimes, U.S. officials have been flooding the zone with unfalsifiable claims which maintain a thin veneer of believability. Thus, I’ve observed people upsetting themselves in this regard.

REBT uses the ABC model to illustrate that when an undesirable Action occurs and you Believe an unhelpful narrative about the event, it’s your unfavorable assumption, not the occurrence itself, that causes an unpleasant Consequence. This is known as distress or disturbance.

Noteworthy, with virtually any undesirable Action that occurs, it’s your unfavorable Beliefs which cause unpleasant distress or disturbance (Consequence). Given this framing of self-distress and self-disturbance, it’s worth noting that one REBT source states (page 71):

REBT conceptualizes [distress] as healthy even though it is intense. Other approaches to therapy have as their goal the reduction of the intensity of negative emotions. They take this position because they do not keenly differentiate between healthy negative emotions (distress) and unhealthy negative emotions (disturbance).

Now, REBT keenly distinguishes between healthy distress and unhealthy disturbance. Healthy distress stems from your rational beliefs about a negative activating event [Action], whilst disturbance stems from your irrational beliefs about the same event.

Complete elimination of distress is highly unlikely in an impermanent and uncertain world wherein people conceptually suffer, struggle, and battle with, or merely experience hardship. Still, individuals often make matters worse for themselves by disturbing about such instances.

In particular, there are four predominate irrational beliefs which people often use to distress or disturb themselves: global evaluations, low frustration tolerance, awfulizing, and demandingness. When contemplating these unproductive scripts, think of the acronym GLAD.

For example, person Y discovers information flooding of the zone about UFOs, UAPs, and aliens (Action) and Believes, “Life is meaningless, if my religion isn’t real [G], and I can’t stand it [A], because all these discoveries are abominable [A] and they shouldn’t be released [D]!”

With this point of view, person Y then experiences dread when unhelpfully expecting further evidential releases, of an unfalsifiable nature, which may serve as a further challenge to this individual’s religious worldview (Consequence). Thus, the government’s efforts were effective.

Addressing how people upset themselves with unhelpful attitudes, the ABC model incorporates Disputation of unproductive philosophies of life in order to explore Effective new beliefs. Whereas rigid beliefs cause self-disturbance, flexible beliefs result in an un-disturbed condition.

Rather than unhealthily disturbing with a pessimistic perspective, person Y could Effectively believe, “I have no control or influence over whether or not UFOs, UAPs, or aliens exist, yet I do have control over my reaction to these matters. So, I choose to be concerned, though not upset.”

When placing the U.S. government’s efforts of flooding the zone into the circle of concern while simultaneously practicing ULA with an Effective new belief, person Y then experiences mild and tolerable frustration. This is a negative, though healthy form of distress.

Now, I invite you to practice REBT when believability remains questionable. Besides, conflating believing in with knowing about events likely isn’t well-serving your interests and goals. Thus, when the government begins flooding the zone, you can keep from drowning in their shit!

If you’re looking for a provider who tries to work to help understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life—helping you to sharpen your critical thinking skills, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.

As a psychotherapist, I’m pleased to try to help people with an assortment of issues ranging from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters.

At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply trying to help you to feel better, I want to try to help you get better!

Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW

Photo credit, Designed by Magnific, fair use

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