Bayesian Reasoning
Logic and Reason
I view many events through the proverbial lens of Rational Emotive Behavior Therapy (REBT), as I’ll provide a psychoeducational lesson that involves thinking and believing which is rational (in accordance with both logic and reason), or not (i.e., irrational), as it regards REBT herein.
Here, “logic” is the interrelation or sequence of facts or events when seen as inevitable or predictable, and “reason” is a statement offered in explanation or justification. For instance, a modus ponens syllogism uses the following logical form: If p, then q; p; therefore, q.
Before I provide an example, it may be useful to know that one source states, “A theory is, in general, any hypothesis or set of ideas about something, formed in any number of ways through any sort of reasoning for any sort of reason.” Colloquially, a “theory” alludes to a mere belief.
If every theory in which I believe possibly could be true or real (p), then every theory in which I believe empirically must be true or real (q). Every theory in which I believe possibly could be true or real (p). Therefore, every theory in which I believe empirically must be true or real (q).
This proposition follows logical form; yet I argue that it isn’t reasonable, because what could be isn’t necessarily what is. Thus, I consider this syllogistic belief as that relating to irrationality. Nevertheless, I have little doubt that at least one person on this planet disagrees with my outlook.
Noteworthy, my worldview is subjective (characteristic of or belonging to reality as perceived rather than as independent of mind). Thus, not everyone agrees with what everybody else deems as rational or not. Irrespective of advocacy for equality, not everyone maintains the same views.
For clarity, the American Psychological Association (APA) defines subjective as “taking place or existing only within the mind,” and defines objective as “having verifiable existence in the external world, independently of any opinion or judgment.”
Also, a rational perspective for one person may not be considered rational by members of a group. For example, people dedicating themselves to the practice of science may fervently disagree with referring to a mere belief as a “theory.” I agree! Yet, this is my subjective view.
Bayesian Reasoning
In a blogpost entitled Bayesian Inference, I discussed the matter of inference, which the APA defines as “a conclusion deduced from an earlier premise or premises according to valid rules of inference, or the process of drawing such a conclusion.” I address inferences when using REBT.
Still, the aforementioned post was specifically related to a type of inference based on the work of the 18th century English statistician, philosopher and Presbyterian minister Thomas Bayes. In particular, Bayesian inference aligns with Bayes’ theorem. Now, consider that one source states:
Bayesian reasoning is an application of probability theory to inductive reasoning (and abductive reasoning). It relies on an interpretation of probabilities as expressions of an agent’s uncertainty about the world, rather than as concerning some notion of objective chance in the world. The perspective here is that, when done correctly, inductive reasoning is simply a generalisation of deductive reasoning, where knowledge of the truth or falsity of a proposition corresponds to adopting the extreme probabilities 1 and 0.
Several advantages to this interpretation have been proposed. For one thing, it is possible to have (rational) degrees of belief about a wide range of propositions, including matters which are settled, yet unknown. For example, it is possible to speak of the probability of the value of a constant of nature falling within a given interval on the basis of various pieces of evidence, or of the outcome of a coin that has already been tossed. This interpretation of probability beyond limiting frequencies leads, so advocates such as Edwin Jaynes claim, to a more integrated treatment of probability theory and statistics.
If you’re interested in having Bayesian reasoning explained to you like you’re a five-year-old, then you’re invited to check out this source: Bayesian Reasoning - Explained Like You’re Five. Now, you’re encouraged to consider a practical example of Bayesian reasoning from one source:
Suppose you start feeling unwell and develop a cough. You might first think that there’s a small chance it’s a serious illness. However, if you learn there’s been an outbreak of a specific virus in your area, you might revise your belief and think it’s more likely you’ve caught this serious illness. This is Bayesian reasoning: updating the probability of an event based on new evidence.
When practicing care for mental, emotional, and behavioral health (collectively “mental health”) in my personal and professional capacities, using the REBT technique known as the ABC model, I use Bayesian reasoning. Now, I’ll provide a psychoeducational lesson on use of this tool.
The ABC Model and Building 7
REBT uses the ABC model to illustrate that when an undesirable Action occurs and you Believe an unhelpful narrative about the event, it’s your unfavorable assumption, not the occurrence itself, that causes an unpleasant Consequence. This is known as distress or disturbance.
In particular, there are four predominate irrational beliefs which people often use to distress or disturb themselves: global evaluations, low frustration tolerance, awfulizing, and demandingness. When contemplating these unproductive scripts, think of the acronym GLAD.
Additionally, from a psychological standpoint, people distress or disturb themselves using a Belief-Consequence (B-C) connection. Of course, this isn’t to suggest that in the context of the naturalistic or physical world there is no Action-Consequence (A-C) connection.
Addressing how people upset themselves with unhelpful attitudes, the ABC model incorporates Disputation of unproductive philosophies of life in order to explore Effective new beliefs. Whereas rigid beliefs cause self-disturbance, flexible beliefs result in an un-disturbed condition.
For the ABC model example I’m using herein, I’ll evoke a blog entry that I posted on September 11, 2023, entitled What Would it Take to Change Your Mind? Specifically, I stated:
When using [REBT], I assist clients with the Disputation of irrational beliefs which cause unpleasant emotional, sensory, and behavioral Consequences. This isn’t a comfortable process and it has its limits.
One limiting factor is an individual’s willingness to consider alternative beliefs. Here, I’m not discussing one’s ability to do so, though the act of a person considering new evidence and applying personal choice to change one’s mind.
Rather than addressing some imprecise concept, it may be useful to provide a concrete example to illustrate my point. For this blogpost, I’ll discuss the original 7 World Trade Center which was a 47-story tall building that was destroyed in the September 11 attacks in 2001.
Colloquially known as “Building 7,” the structure fell into its own footprint on September 11, 2001 (9/11), which is a subject of controversy for many people. Speculation about what actually occurred has been attributed to “conspiracy theory.”
Generally speaking, people express doubt about how a burning building could fall in a controlled demolition-style manner without other factors facilitating the collapse (i.e., explosives).
From an A-C view, using the official 9/11 narrative, no significant outside source (e.g., airplane, tower fragments, etc.) struck Building 7, though the structure apparently caved in on itself (Action), as the catastrophic demolition of the entire structure resulted (Consequence).
Without a comprehensible explanation for the Building 7 collapse (Action), people X Believe, “The United States (U.S.) government is worthless [G], as its incompetence cannot be abided [L], because 9/11 was horrific [A], and we absolutely must receive truth about Building 7 [D]!”
With this unaccommodating GLAD Belief, people X then experience negative, but unhealthy anger and aggression (Consequence). This is an altogether different experience than negative, though healthy anger and aggression. Now, it’s worth noting that one source states (page 71):
REBT conceptualizes [distress] as healthy even though it is intense. Other approaches to therapy have as their goal the reduction of the intensity of negative emotions. They take this position because they do not keenly differentiate between healthy negative emotions (distress) and unhealthy negative emotions (disturbance).
Now, REBT keenly distinguishes between healthy distress and unhealthy disturbance. Healthy distress stems from your rational beliefs about a negative activating event [Action], whilst disturbance stems from your irrational beliefs about the same event.
Complete elimination of distress is highly unlikely in an impermanent and uncertain world wherein people conceptually suffer, struggle, and battle with, or merely experience hardship. Still, individuals often make matters worse for themselves by disturbing about such instances.
Negative, though healthy anger and aggression (i.e., distress) stem from rational Beliefs about the lies surrounding Building 7 (and other 9/11 mistruths), though negative, but unhealthy anger and aggression (i.e., disturbance) stem from irrational Beliefs about the same event.
An example of the former Consequence would be if people X were angered as a direct result of their Beliefs about U.S. government lies, and these individuals aggressively contacted their elected representatives for legal remedies. This is a healthy outcome, even if possibly ineffective.
An example of the latter Consequence would be if people X were angered as a direct result of their Beliefs about U.S. government lies, as these individuals aggressively rioted during a protest regarding 9/11 and about ineffective attempts for redress. This is an unhealthy conclusion.
Concerning either unpleasant Consequence, the undesirable Action didn’t change. Yet, regarding both results, either rational or irrational Beliefs caused the Consequences. For years, I self-distressed and self-disturbed with Beliefs about 9/11, specifically relating to Building 7.
Yet, using Bayesian reasoning as a matter of Disputation for both rational and irrational Beliefs, I eventually attained success with my interest and goal not to have any negative emotions about the event, achieving indifference, as I concluded in What Would it Take to Change Your Mind?:
I changed my mind by acknowledging truth—I simply don’t have control over most matters in life and with the little time I have left on this Earth, I don’t care enough to bother myself with beliefs about the events of 9/11. With that, I moved from unverifiable claims to an agnostic perspective.
Now, I ask the reader, what would it take to change your mind—about anything? Do you need the complexity of a complicated formula such as Bayes’ theorem?
Alternatively, does a shorter path to unconditional acceptance appeal to you? If neither of these methods is acceptable, how do you go about changing your mind?
I’ve intentionally refrained from demonstrating precisely how I apply Bayesian reasoning herein. Besides, this blogpost is long enough as is. Therefore, if you’d like to see exactly how I use this tool, then I invite you to take a look at any of the entries within my Disputation blog category.
If you’re looking for a provider who tries to work to help understand how thinking impacts physical, mental, emotional, and behavioral elements of your life—helping you to sharpen your critical thinking skills, I invite you to reach out today by using the contact widget on my website.
As a psychotherapist, I’m pleased to try to help people with an assortment of issues ranging from anger (hostility, rage, and aggression) to relational issues, adjustment matters, trauma experience, justice involvement, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, anxiety and depression, and other mood or personality-related matters.
At Hollings Therapy, LLC, serving all of Texas, I aim to treat clients with dignity and respect while offering a multi-lensed approach to the practice of psychotherapy and life coaching. My mission includes: Prioritizing the cognitive and emotive needs of clients, an overall reduction in client suffering, and supporting sustainable growth for the clients I serve. Rather than simply trying to help you to feel better, I want to try to help you get better!
Deric Hollings, LPC, LCSW
Photo credit, Designed by Magnific, fair use
References:
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Hollings, D. (2024, October 27). Correlation does not imply causation. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/correlation-does-not-imply-causation
Hollings, D. (2022, October 31). Demandingness. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/demandingness
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Hollings, D. (2025, March 12). Distress vs. disturbance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/distress-vs-disturbance
Hollings, D. (2025, May 16). Eff the logic. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/eff-the-logic
Hollings, D. (2024, July 10). Empirical should beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/empirical-should-beliefs
Hollings, D. (2026, April 12). Excuses, explanations, and justifications. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/excuses-explanations-and-justifications
Hollings, D. (2025, December 13). Explanation and justification. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/explanation-and-justification
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Hollings, D. (2024, May 17). Feeling better vs. getting better. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/feeling-better-vs-getting-better-1
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Hollings, D. (2024, April 13). Goals. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/goals
Hollings, D. (2026, June 6). High and dry: Steering a proverbial ship around unhelpful assumptions. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/high-and-dry-steering-a-proverbial-ship-around-unhelpful-assumptions
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Hollings, D. (2024, February 20). I have a theory about that. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/i-have-a-theory-about-that
Hollings, D. (2026, May 16). I’m finding it hard to believe we’re in Heaven or Hell: Agnostic. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/i-m-finding-it-hard-to-believe-we-re-in-heaven-or-hell-agnostic
Hollings, D. (2024, October 21). Impermanence and uncertainty. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/impermanence-and-uncertainty
Hollings, D. (2026, April 8). Impermanence and uncertainty: I don’t know where tomorrow will take me. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/impermanence-and-uncertainty-i-don-t-know-where-tomorrow-will-take-me
Hollings, D. (2025, July 23). Indifference: How much more relaxed would you be? Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/indifference-how-much-more-relaxed-would-you-be
Hollings, D. (2024, February 14). Insufferable vs. undesirable. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/insufferable-vs-undesirable
Hollings, D. (2024, January 2). Interests and goals. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/interests-and-goals
Hollings, D. (2024, September 26). Interpreted reality. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/interpreted-reality
Hollings, D. (2025, April 23). Judgment. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/judgment
Hollings, D. (2026, March 11). Just the facts. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/just-the-facts
Hollings, D. (2025, October 13). Knowledge, wisdom, understanding. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/knowledge-wisdom-understanding
Hollings, D. (2023, September 19). Life coaching. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/life-coaching
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Hollings, D. (2023, January 8). Logic and reason. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/logic-and-reason
Hollings, D. (2022, December 2). Low frustration tolerance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/low-frustration-tolerance
Hollings, D. (2024, March 4). Mental, emotional, and behavioral health. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/mental-emotional-and-behavioral-health
Hollings, D. (2025, November 16). Mental health, mental illness, and mental disorder. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/mental-health-mental-illness-and-mental-disorder
Hollings, D. (2024, October 5). Mistaking deductive validity for truth. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/mistaking-deductive-validity-for-truth
Hollings, D. (2025, March 16). Modus ponens. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/modus-ponens
Hollings, D. (2026, September 9). Morals, ethics, law, justice, subjectivity, and objectivity: Can you reserve judgment? Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/morals-ethics-law-justice-subjectivity-and-objectivity-can-you-reserve-judgment
Hollings, D. (2024, September 27). My attitude. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/my-attitude
Hollings, D. (2025, August 2). My philosophy. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/my-philosophy
Hollings, D. (2026, April 26). Negative, but healthy anger and aggression. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/negative-but-healthy-anger-and-aggression
Hollings, D. (2026, April 4). Objective reality. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/objective-reality
Hollings, D. (2024, April 22). On disputing. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-disputing
Hollings, D. (2023, September 3). On feelings. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-feelings
Hollings, D. (2023, April 24). On truth. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/on-truth
Hollings, D. (2024, November 18). Opinions. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/opinions
Hollings, D. (2026, April 19). Outcome: Victim mentality and playing the victim. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/outcome-victim-mentality-and-playing-the-victim
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Hollings, D. (2025, April 9). Perception, action, and will. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/perception-action-and-will
Hollings, D. (2024, July 20). Perspective shift. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/perspective-shift
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Hollings, D. (2026, August 22). Rage, rage disorder, and road rage: Negative, but unhealthy anger and aggression. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rage-rage-disorder-and-road-rage-negative-but-unhealthy-anger-and-aggression
Hollings, D. (2022, March 24). Rational emotive behavior therapy (REBT). Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-emotive-behavior-therapy-rebt
Hollings, D. (2025, August 13). Rational versus irrational thoughts and beliefs. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-versus-irrational-thoughts-and-beliefs
Hollings, D. (2024, January 1). Rational vs. irrational. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rational-vs-irrational
Hollings, D. (2024, December 5). Reasoning. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/reasoning
Hollings, D. (2024, May 22). Reasoning with the unreasonable. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/reasoning-with-the-unreasonable
Hollings, D. (2024, March 14). REBT and emotions. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rebt-and-emotions
Hollings, D. (2024, July 18). REBT flexibility. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rebt-flexibility
Hollings, D. (2024, January 4). Rigid vs. rigorous. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/rigid-vs-rigorous
Hollings, D. (2025, December 31). Sanctum: A focus on irrationality. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/sanctum-a-focus-on-irrationality
Hollings, D. (2026, July 7). Self-distress and distress tolerance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/self-distress-and-distress-tolerance
Hollings, D. (2022, November 1). Self-disturbance. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/self-disturbance
Hollings, D. (2026, April 21). Self-upset. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/self-upset
Hollings, D. (2024, April 21). Sensation. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/sensation
Hollings, D. (2026, February 24). Skepticism: I doubt it. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/skepticism-i-doubt-it
Hollings, D. (2025, December 24). Some people advocate walking. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/some-people-advocate-walking
Hollings, D. (2024, February 27). Suffering, struggling, and battling vs. experiencing. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/suffering-struggling-and-battling-vs-experiencing
Hollings, D. (2023, October 17). Syllogism. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/syllogism
Hollings, D. (2022, December 23). The A-C connection. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-a-c-connection
Hollings, D. (2022, December 25). The B-C connection. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-b-c-connection
Hollings, D. (2026, April 12). The Cartesian crisis: What do I control? What do I influence? Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/ the-cartesian-crisis-what-do-i-control-what-do-i-influence
Hollings, D. (2025, October 22). The construct. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-construct
Hollings, D. (2022, November 2). The critical A. Hollings Therapy, LLC. Retrieved from https://www.hollingstherapy.com/post/the-critical-a
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